24.03.2014/2054 Scenario, Urban Analysis and Individual Phase

2054 SCENARIO BRIEF

In 2014 people were talking about an earthquake which will be expected to happen in recent times... In 2044, this earthquake happened around Izmir. Because of earthquake, many people died and many people lost their relatives.Therefore, social relations between humans become more important. In 2054, Turkey started to evaluate Boron reserves so national income started to increase. Most of Turkey’s external and internal debts are paid off. But, In Izmir after earthquake, most people lost their properties and it causes socio-economic class differences. Also, Because of highly developed technology life quality of humans increased. In 2054, amount of health utilities increased and all of them are incorporated. In 2054, government started to support education and students financially.Compulsory education become 12 years. In 2054,public education centers amount increased and people started to spend their leisure times more efficient.Interest in sport, science and art becomes more important.

Izmir, because of its location, has geothermal energy, solar energy ,wind energy and biogas renewable energy sources.In 2054,for taking more advantage from existing sources, geothermal and biogass factories will be estabished, using geothermal energy at heating  and cooling in buildings, greenhousing, thermal spas in tourism purposes, producing drinking water containing minerals will become widespread. Also  Izmir has a lot of wind energy and solar energy potential. In 2054, amounts of windmills, solar panels and other sunlight gathering equipments increased. Boron become essential element for using as glass industry, ceramic industry, cleaning industry, agriculture, metalurgy, fireproof material creating etc.In 2054, solar and wind power could reduce fossil fuel consumption in shipping.With the development of technology, transporting is based on cars, zeplins, electiric shuttle and airbus etc.. These are working with electiricity which will be produced with bicycle,windmills etc. Public transportation will be based on airships and solar-powered ships.High -tech industry will be developed such as automotive, biotehnology, computer science, nanotechnology, robotics etc.. Many new factories will be established.   Manual labor will almost give it’s place to machine and robotics labor.New materials will be common such as wool bricks, solar tiles paper insulation, carbon fiber etc.. Usage of concrete and plastics will be minimum.In 2014, spreading unhealthy foods with Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) increased day by day and people affected very badly.In 2054, there will be a lot of innovation in food production.People will encouraged to natural and healthy food production.  Also, technology development makes people life easier who work at agriculture.Because of the lack of water, drip irrigation systems which spend less water will be prefered and vertical farming become common.

As an Envionmental Hypotheses of İzmir, In 2014, global warming effects become more visible. Months average temperatures shifted. In 2054, global average temperatures change which is around risen by 2.5°C. A lot of sectors are affected by global warming. In 2014, because of using sources such as, coal, fuel etc and industrial sewage, air pollution increased. In 2054, electricity or sustainable fuel usage at transportation vehicles become mandatory in Turkey. In 2014,because of global warming, low rain water average and unconscious usage of water, quantity of water decreased. In 2054, water saving methods will be developed. Underground water is used for heating, watering and industrial area. In 2014, 87 new wells of underground water were begun operating. In 2054, 110 more new wells will be opened with the aim of supporting the water system. cBecause of the low rain water average, rain water collection is getting important. In 2054, rain water conservation is mandatory for every residential. In 2054, because of unconscious fishing and water pollution, some types of fishes become extinct. The average body size of fish has changed,birds migration times will be shifted and plants will decay faster. 

This collage explains in 2054 İnciraltı proposal. Thinking of development about this site. These developments are transportation systems ( flying car, energy consumption bicycle and zeplin), argiculture, wind and sun energy, green area, natural area for human and animals) and other developments..

In 2040, Izmir exposed to very grievous earthquake.

Individual electiric cars on new roads.

Urban Analysis

Total area around 2500 hectar which means 25 km2.

Sun path wind direction diagram in İnciraltı site.

In this analysis existing important points of Inciraltı area. Dashed lines show main roads of site.Blue area show ferry station, red one show health center, white area show leisure time activities and cafes, yellow area show education and orange area show administrative facilities locations.

Around the site have ferry station, Marine, Restaurans, Filamingo Pride, Lagoon, Hotel and Museum etc..

Individual Phase

Because of our Scenerio

* Earthquake will be happenin 2040

* Climate 2.5 °C.

* Population decreasing

* Baron increase

* Argiculture increase

* Using Windmilss, Sun Energy and Geothermal energy.

For these reasons I focus on 4 main points to propose:

1. Harvesting

2. Relaxing

3. Leisure time activities

4. Living (Residential area)

Harvesting

- Green Areas

- Greenhouses

- Argiculture

- Garden buildings (Exhibition gardens)

Relaxing

- Geothermal Hotel

- Therapy Center

- Seating Steps and Observation Area

Leisure time activities

- Museum for Earthquake

- Restaurans

- Social Rooms

- New event plaza

Living (Residential area)

- Residential Area for wealthy people

- Residential Area for poor people

18.03.2014/ Final Version of 2054 Scenario

LAST SCENARIO
''SECURITY FIRST''

Socio- Political Hypotheses

Social Relations

•In 2014 people were talking about an earthquake which will be expected to happen in recent times...

•In 2044, this earthquake happened around Izmir. Because of earthquake, many people died and many people lost their relatives.Therefore, sensitivity and helping between humans become more important. After this earthquake, many supports come around the world, around Turkey even from the people who did not effect from the earthquake in Izmir.

Source:http://gundem.milliyet.com.tr/-buyuk-deprem-2040-yilindan-once-olmayacak

Economic System

•In 2014, Turkey has external and internal debts. Turkey depend on outside financial sources.

•In 2054, Turkey started to evaluate Boron reserves so national income started to increase. Most of Turkey’s external and internal debts are paid off. Turkey gain its own economic independence and welfare level increased. Turkey started discourage importation and support home made production which are technological, agricultural etc..

•But, In Izmir after earthquake, most people lost their properties and it causes socio-economic class differences.

Source: Goldman Sachs, http://www.tacs.eu/tr

Political Order

•In 2014 conservative regime is dominant. Civil war is expected. Also, because of having a lot of external depts, Turkey sold out many health, education and secure utilities.

•In 2054,liberal regime is dominant. Turkey take back most of sold out utilities and incorporate them. So, health, education and secure are not paid anymore.

Source: http://www.tusiad.org

Population Size and Structure

•In 2014, Turkey’s young population increasing and unemployment is a major problem.

•In Turkey, young population still increases but, in Izmir, because of earthquake population highly decreased. Amount of square meter per person is increased. Normally, around the country, annual population growth is nearly 0.012, but in Izmir because of earthquake, ratios changed. The percentage of the death is 40.

Source: http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/gundem/25688311.asp

Work Methods

•In 2014, government do not support people who want to start a business. Mostly, people try to start business with their own incomes. Trade, tourism, automative and health sectors are in demand. On the contrary, agriculture,livestock etc.. decrease in demand.

•In 2054, government support citizens in any case who wants to open a new bussiness.

Source: http://tuik.gov.tr

Mainstream Lifestyles

•In 2014, there are many socio-economic classes. Because of civil war and political issues, people have high hopes.

•Because of highly developed technology life quality of humans increased. Citizens affected a lot from the losses happened at earthquake so, studies about increasing life span and strengthening structures to prevent collapsing is going on.

Source: http://tr.wikipedia.org

Health Issues

•In 2014, because of bad condition and apathy in public hospital, people generally prefer private hospital rather than public, but low budget families have to go public hospitals, because of their economic situations, so they cannot be able to make use of health utilities properly.

•In 2054, amount of health utilities increased and all of them are incorporated. By development of technology, health problems decrease.

•In Izmir,the earthquake which caused a lot of loss and injuries affect other citizens deeply. So, health utility amounts and qualities increased and become important.

Source: http://www.saglik.gov.tr/TR/belge/1-2952/istatistik-yilliklari.html

Education and Culture

•In 2014, education system is not exactly determined, it changes every year. Government still tries to find best solution. Compulsory education is 8 years.

•In 2054, government started to support education and students financially.Compulsory education become 12 years (high school should be finished) and students who study at university are encouraged to work.

•Due to the forgotten Turkish culture, regaining studies developed and culture become more important.

Source: http://www.tubitak.gov.tr/tubitak_content_files.pdf

Leisure and Spiritual Needs

•In 2014,people spend their time mostly by doing sport, shopping and entertaining.In Izmir, shopping mall and walking nearby sea is very common.

•In 2054,public education centers amount increased and people started to spend their leisure times more efficient.Interest in sport, science and art becomes more important.

Source: http://e-ogrenme.anadolu.edu.tr/eKitap.pdf

Technical Hypotheses

Energy Supply and Use

•In 2014, people mostly consume and do not care about the lack of sources. Wind and geothermal energy are used but not common yet.

•Izmir, because of its location, has geothermal energy, solar energy ,wind energy and biogas renewable energy sources.

•Because of the climate change and decreasing fossil fuel, in 2054 people provide those needs by renewable energy sources. For example; wind, solar, geothermal and sustainable forms of bio-energy.

•In Izmir,in 2054,for taking more advantage from existing sources, geothermal and biogass factories will be estabished, windmill and solar panel amounts will be increased.

Source: http://web.deu.edu.tr, http://www.desertec.org/en/press

WIND ENERGY

•In 2014, as can be seen Izmir has a lot of wind energy potential and Aegean Region is first compared to other regions in terms of Installed Capacity for Operational Wind Power Plants•In 2054, Aegean Region will still be first compared to others.Windmill amounts will be increased and studies about generating electric energy from windmills continues.
Source: http://www.investinizmir.com/en/html/646/Wind+Power+in+Izmir

•It is observed that 40% of the installed wind power throughout Aegean Region is concentrated inside İzmir borders. This ratio corresponds to 382.4 MW installed power.

•Izmir actually has 11.854 MW wind energy capacity, but only 2.6% of this amount is used in 2011. In 2014, this ratio increased to 6.5%. In 2054, this ratio will be expected as nearly 54.6%.This situation makes Aegean Region, especially İzmir has an important role regarding wind power energy sector.

•In Izmir in 2014, there are 13 wind energy facilities and 2 of them are still at construction phase. In 2054, this amount will be nearly 25 and will be located in Bergama, Çeşme, Dikili, Aliağa, Foça, Karaburun, Urla

Source: http://web.deu.edu.tr , http://www.eie.gov.tr/yenilenebilir/ruzgar-ruzgar_enerjisi

SOLAR ENERGY

•In 2014, values of Izmir are like represented in graphics.According to chart average sunlight in a year is 7,82. In terms of sunlight Izmir has a big potential but usage of sunlight is weak.

•In 2054, because of ozone layer depletion, average of sunlight per a year increased. At the same time, storage and usage of sunlight technologies also developed. Therefore, amount of the solar panels and other sunlight gathering equipments increased.

Source: http://www.izmirgunesenerjisi.net/

•Most potential places for solar energy in İzmir are Seferihisar, Karşıyaka-Bayraklı, Urla, Bayındır, Buca, Gaziemir, Bornova, Selçuk, Torbalı, Kemalpaşa, Konak and Karabağlar. In 2054, Photovoltaics (PV) amounts will be increased in that potential areas.

Source: http://www.alternative-energy-tutorials.com/solar-power/grid-connected-pv-system.html

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY IN IZMIR

•İzmir is among the richest provinces throughout Aegean Region and Turkey in regards to existence of geothermal sites.(Turkey’s 70% of geothermal sources are in Aegean Region).Balçova coming foremost, Seferihisar, Balçova, Dikili and Bergama districts are all very important geothermal sites.

•Regarding the current installed power, there is no power plant generating electricity by the use of geothermal energy in İzmir province.

•In 2054, current potential usage amount will be increased. So using geothermal energy at heating and cooling in buildings, greenhousing, thermal spas in tourism purposes, producing drinking water containing minerals will become widespread.

Source: http://www.investinizmir.com/en/html/642/Geothermal+Energy+in+Izmir , http://web.deu.edu.tr

Biogas

•Biogas is a mixture of gases which can be produced from regionally available raw materials such as recycled waste and is a renewable energy source and in many cases.

Applications areas are:

1.Burning for heating

2. As a motor fuel for transportation

3.Turbine fuel for generating electricity

4.Usage at fuel cell

5.Addition to existing natural gases for reducing cost

6.Producing chemical materials

In 2014, there is one facility to produce biogas at Kocaeli. In 2054, amount of those facilities increased and biogas usage become common.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biogas

Available Material Resources

•In 2014, Turkey has Boron potential, but there was no process, it was only sold as a raw material to foreign countries.

•In 2054, this process developed and boron become essential element for using as glass industry, ceramic industry, cleaning industry, agriculture, metalurgy, fireproof material creating etc.

Communication and Transportation

•In 2014, generally people have their own cars. Public transportation also exists but because of the bad quality of vehicles and not obeying the schedule, people generally prefer their own cars.

•In 2054, solar and wind power could reduce fossil fuel consumption in shipping.With the development of technology, transporting is based on cars, zeplins, electiric shuttle and airbus etc.. These are working with electiricity which will be produced with bicycle,windmills etc. Public transportation will be based on airships and solar-powered ships.

•In 2014 Izmir has a waterfront bicycle project to encourage people sport and using bicycle for transportation. In 2054 in order to get more benefit from this situation, generating electricity from bicycles will be started.

Source: http://www.technologyreview.com/view/516661/the-future-of-solar-and-wind-powered-shipping , www.bbc.com

Manufactures Systems

•In 2014, industry is based on both manual labor and machine labor. People is not aware of sustainability’s importance yet, so factories and other type of industries cause air pollution and noise pollution.

•In 2054, high-tech industry will be developed such as automotive, biotehnology, computer science, nanotechnology, robotics etc.. Many new factories will be established. Manual labor will almost give it’s place to machine and robotics labor.

•In 2014, the most popular industries in İzmir are cement, ceramic, steel, agriculture machines, fertilizer etc.. Those industries will be developed more and new technologies will started to apply in that sectors.

Source: http://www.izmir.bel.tr

Construction Materials

•In 2014, concrete, brick, glass are commonly preferred materials at construction because of being cheap and durable. Sustainable building technologies started to become important and developing day by day. Also, because of the lack of materials, searches about new materials in process.

•In 2054, new materials will be found such as wool bricks, solar tiles paper insulation, carbon fiber etc.. Usage of concrete and plastics will be minimum.In Izmir because of earthquake, people started to prefer those durable and sustainable materials at constructions. Also, building rubbles from earthquake seperated and re-cycled.

Source: http://www.sustainablecitiescollective.com, http://www.technewsdaily.com/future-building-materials.html, http://materia.nl/article/future-building-materials/

Food Production

•In 2014, spreading unhealthy foods with Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) increased day by day and people affected very badly.

•In 2054, there will be a lot of innovation in food production.People will encouraged to natural and healthy food production. Also, technology development makes people life easier who work at agriculture.Because of the lack of water, drip irrigation systems which spend less water will be prefered.

•In 2054, agriculture become more popular in Izmir.The owners of this site offer a house and minimum wage to other people, in return for working at urban farming at site. Income of urban farming is employer’s. Also vertical farming become common.

Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertical_farming

Environmental Hypotheses

Climate Regime

•In 2014, global warming effects become more visible day by day. Months average temperatures shifted.

•In 2054, global warming causes global average temperatures change which is around risen by 2.5°C. People, agriculture, livestock sector etc. affected from this situation.

•Farmers must have the ability to adjust to changes by adapting farming practices. Adaptation, such as changes in crops and crop varieties, improved water management,irrigation systems and changes in planting schedules will be important in limiting the negative effects and taking advantage of the benefits of climate change. More efficient use of mineral fertilizers and other adjustments in agricultural practices could also help decreasing bad effects of climate change.

 Air Pollution

•In 2014, because of using sources such as, coal, fuel etc and industrial sewage, air pollution increased. Government started to support natural gas usage.

•In Turkey, because of increased air pollution ratio in 2054, electricity or sustainable fuel usage at transportation vehicles become mandatory. At the same time, spreading usage of biogas and natural gases help reducing air pollution. Amount of green areas increased.

Source: http://www.earthzine.org

Water Availability

•In 2014,because of global warming, low rain water average and unconscious usage of water, quantity of water decreased. People started to realize the effects of the lack of water and try to be more careful.

•In 2054, water saving methods will be developed. For example, waste water will be purified and re-used, water consumption ratios will be decreased. Also, water will be used more efficiently in agriculture by using drip irrigation.

Source: http://www.climate.org/topics/water.html

•Figure 1 shows 2014 water sources of İzmir. Figure 2 is the plan of İzsu for future water resources of İzmir for 2050.

•Turkey has 503 dams. Izmir has 11 dams and water capacities of those dams are as shown in graphic. Dams are mostly used for producing drinkable water, water for agriculture and hydro-electric power.

Underground Water

•Underground water is used for heating, watering and industrial area.

•In 2014, 87 new wells of underground water were begun operating on an area including 14 districts, communities and villages within the borders of İzmir Metropolitan Municipality.

•In 2054, 110 more new wells will be opened with the aim of supporting the water system of İzmir.

Waste and Sewage Treatment

•Because of the low rain water average, rain water collection is getting important day by day. In 2054, rain water conservation is mandatory for every residential. Collected water into conservation system will be used for farming and indoor household.

Flora and Fauna Status

•In 2054, because of unconscious fishing and water pollution, some types of fishes become extinct. By far the greatest impact from global warming will be in the seas and oceans and those effects are changes in heat content, oxygen levels and other biogeochemical etc.. Globally, the average body size of fish has declined by up to 24 per cent compared with 2014.

•In 2054, because of global warming, birds migration times will be shifted.

•Plants will decay faster because of the warmer climates caused by global warming.

Source: https://www.futuretimeline.net

Ourselves in Scenario

We are nearly 60 years old and we are also the ones who affected from earthquake. We establish a foundation for earthquake victims and we are the chairmans of foundation. The foundation reaches very large member amounts and it becomes popular. In result of discussions with members, we contact government about what we expect and what projects can be developed in site with sustainable design qualities.

17.03.2014 / Sustainable Future Scenario for 2054 /4

SCENARIO 3

''SECURITY FIRST''

Socio- Political Hypotheses

Social Relations:

In 2014 people were talking about an earthquake which will be expected to happen in recent times... In 2044, this earthquake happened around Izmir. Because of earthquake, many people died and many people lost their relatives.Therefore, sensitivity and helping between humans become more important. After this earthquake, many supports come around the world, around Turkey even from the people who did not effect from the earthquake in Izmir.

Economic System:

Turkey’s all external and internal debts are paid off. Turkey gain its economic independence and welfare level increased. Turkey started discourage importation and support home made production which are technological, agricultural etc..

 But, In Izmir after earthquake, most people lost their properties and it causes socio-economic class differences.

Political Order:

In Turkey, capitalist regime is dominant.

In 2014, because of having a lot of external depts , Turkey sold out many health, education and secure utilities. In 2054, Turkey take back all sold out utilities and incorporate them. So, health, education and secure are not paid anymore. 

Population Size and Structure:

General situation in Turkey, population continue to increase regularly. Young population increased.

In Izmir, because of earthquake population highly decreased. Amount of squaremeter per person is increased.Normally, around the country, annual population growth is nearly 0.012, but in Izmir because of earthquake, ratios changed. The percentage of the death is 40.

Work Methods:

People who didn’t lost their properties (are also the owners of this site) offers a house from site and minimum wage to other people in return for working at urban farming. Income of urban farming is employer’s.

Government support citizens in any case who wants to open a new bussiness.

 

Mainstream Lifestyles:

Because of highly developed technology life quality of humans increased. The earthquake which caused a lot of loss affect other citizens deeply. Studies about increasing life span and strengthening structures to prevent collapsing is going on.

Health Issues:

Amount of health utilities increased and all of them are incorporated. By development of technology, health problems decrease.

Education and Culture:

Government supports education and students financially.

Compulsory education become 12 years ( high school should be finished) and students who study at university are encouraged to work.

Due to the forgotten Turkish culture, regaining studies developed and culture become more important.

Leisure and Spiritual Needs:

Public education centers amount increased and people started to spend their leisure times more efficient.

Interest in sport, science and art becomes more important.

Environmental Hypotheses

Climate Regime:

Global warming causes global average temperatures change which around risen by 4°C. Because of this climate changing, growinf vegetables also changed.

Air Pollution:

In Turkey, because of increased air pollution ratio in 2054, Electricity or sustainable fuel usage at transportation vehicles become mandatory. At the same time, spreading usage of biogas and natural gases help reducing air pollution.

After earthquake, many residential areas collapsed and at the same time, population decreased, so that many residential areas are not necessary anymore. Therefore, some places which existed as a building area, turn to forest and green areas.

Water Availability:

Because of global warming, Most amount of poles will be melt and sea evel will increase about 20 cm, but quantity of water decreased, because of low rain water average.

For increasing usable water quantity, amount of dams will be increased. In 2014, Turkey has 503 dams. 

In 2054, it will be nearly 610 dams. 

 

Waste and Sewage Treatment:

Because of the low rain water average, rain water collection is getting important day by day. Water conservation is mandatory for every residential. Collected water into conservation system will be used for farming and indoor household.

Flora and Fauna Status:

Turkey shows a notable diversity of habitats, with significant variations in altitude, wainfall, temperature, topography and geological history, which reflected in its richness of animal and plant life.

Turkey is divided to 7 geographic regions. Mediterranean region is the most important area in terms of richness of endemic plants. East anatolia region has also a rich diversity of species and ranked secondly in terms of endemism rate.